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(Source: Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla) |
America is currently battling three powerful nations on behalf of three non-treasury partners while embroiled in three significant geopolitical crises in three isolated regions of the globe.
In order to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from interfering in Israel's conflict with Hamas, which puts American personnel in danger and could entangle the US in yet another big conflict in the region, American forces are stationed throughout the Middle East. Iranian-backed forces have already launched many drone and missile attacks against US forces in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen; in response, the US has undertaken retaliation strikes. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has prompted the United States to wage a proxy war against it throughout Eastern Europe. Regarding Taiwan's political position, the United States runs the risk of getting into a devastating conflict with China in East Asia.
President Joe Biden stated in a recent speech from the Oval Office that all of these flashpoints are interrelated fronts in what the government has previously characterized as a worldwide conflict between authoritarianism and democracy. In response to Madeleine Albright, the former secretary of state, saying that the United States is the "indispensable nation," Biden said, "American leadership is what brings the world together." "Ensuring the success of Israel and Ukraine is vital to American national security," Biden added. He restated the notion that the US is the "essential nation" in an opinion piece published in the Washington Post in November.
These claims are not credible when examined closely. America's engagement in these problems only serves to deplete its resources, increase needless dangers, exacerbate internal tensions, and rob the American people of money that might be better spent at home. Indeed, as evidenced by recent opinion surveys showing a fall in support for both Israel and Ukraine among Democrats and Republicans, the American people are becoming less willing to foot the cost for military assistance to conflicts abroad forever.
The United States' long-standing strategy of keeping both allies and adversaries in the Middle East has proven detrimental to its professed goal of regional stability. The US has been at odds with Iran in recent years, having waged a campaign of economic sanctions known as "maximum pressure" in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani, a prominent commander in the Iranian military. Meanwhile, by toppling Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq and later arming forces opposing Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war, the US unintentionally increased Tehran's influence in the region and ultimately gave Iranian-backed militias more power against ISIS, US-backed groups, and the Sunni opposition.
US allies whose misbehavior has been encouraged by Washington's unwavering support have not improved regional stability. Despite Israel's ongoing development of settlements in the occupied West Bank and its long-standing siege of Gaza, which has fueled the underlying Israeli-Palestinian conflict that now threatens to engulf the region, the United States has continuously supported Israel.
The United States backed Saudi Arabia's brutal war against the Houthis, who were backed by Iran, in Yemen, despite the rhetoric of "democracy against tyranny." The result was what the UN referred to as "the world's worst humanitarian crisis," with approximately 377,000 people killed and about 80% of the population in need of humanitarian aid. The Biden administration's security cooperation with Saudi Arabia has grown since then.
In addition to attempting to prevent a wider confrontation in the Middle East or Ukraine, the president's speech in the Oval Office aimed to contextualize these issues on a global scale. According to Biden, American friendships would be jeopardized and distant rivals would be encouraged to undertake additional aggression if the US did not stop them. This logic rests on dubious presumptions from the Cold War and World War II, like the "domino theory."
Biden asserted that Putin will push into Poland or the Baltics if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine. This is not rational. Even if it chose to, Russia lacks the material resources to try to conquer Eastern Europe. Without the US and Canada, European NATO members in 2022 had a GDP almost nine times larger, a population 3.5 times larger, their own nuclear deterrent, and they spent a lot more on defense and kept a higher number of active-duty people than Russia. alongside them. This worry seems even more remote in light of Russia's dismal performance in Ukraine.
The president hinted subtly that China would feel empowered to invade Taiwan if Russia was not soundly defeated in Ukraine. This is also an incorrect assumption. Political scientists like Daryl Press and Jonathan Mercer have suggested that rather than relying on previous behavior in a specific environment, nations typically forecast an adversary's future actions based on projected interests and existing capabilities. If Taiwan is invaded by China, it will probably be for military reasons (Beijing has more military might hundreds of miles off Taiwan's shore, and it feels it has little chance of peaceful reunification) rather than because Washington has become less resolute in its backing of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, there's no sign that America's allies bound by treaties are beginning to doubt the legitimacy of its promise to protect them. The fact that strong nations like Germany and Japan are cutting back on their defense budgets suggests that America's friends are still overconfident in their ability to place the responsibility on Uncle Sam. Japan and Germany will undoubtedly take greater action to protect themselves if the United States does less to defend them, rather than merely ceding their sovereignty to China or Russia.
The US needs to take a more cautious approach to its grand strategy, one that puts US interests first more strictly, is less likely to get entangled, is less likely to agitate far-off enemies, and is more sensitive to US needs and resources at home.
First, the US shouldn't have permanent allies and adversaries. It was reportedly noted by former President Richard Nixon, "Our obligations must shape our interests, not the other way around." Military alliances are pledges to fight for one side in a conflict if needed. As a result, America needs to form coalitions to counteract certain dangers as they materialize. Allies shift along with the threats. Since alliances include large expenses and risks, genuine, pressing security concerns—rather than assertions of world leadership—must serve as their guiding principles.
Second, America needs to quit bringing its enemies together. All the United States is doing is making sure that there are plenty of adversaries out to get it by portraying world politics as a conflict between democracy and tyranny. Rather than attempting to export a specific kind of regime (which they do not share), the developing security alliance between China, Russia, and Iran is primarily based on a common threat from the United States. The country that has attempted to forcefully impose its own beliefs on others the most is the United States of America. When there are no core interests at issue, it is prudent to reconcile with past opponents.
Third, the United States needs to give its regional allies—particularly those in the Middle East and Europe—more responsibility for handling regional challenges. One indication that American resources are scarce is the lack of ammunition brought on by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Reducing the duration of US military engagement would encourage self-preservation-minded, capable regional states to combine forces against local threats. Transferring responsibilities to regional allies would also lessen the likelihood that the US would be dragged into a big conflict and save a substantial amount of money on keeping troops overseas. The United States may delegate responsibilities to others while preserving its security because of its advantageous power position and distance from Eurasia.
Ultimately, in order to promote democratic ideals globally, the US needs to provide a convincing example of a functioning democracy in the US that can be emulated overseas. According to Biden, "America is a beacon to the world." But America's republic is deteriorating as it strives to support its empire. Not the Empire, but the Republic must be saved.
